2018 Power Rankings-Week 13
Introduction Three teams. Two playoff spots. A dynasty, fighting to stay alive. An old empire, rising from the ashes to retake power from a familiar foe. A struggling franchise, looking to rewrite the history books. ---- Three teams. Two bye spots. A super-team, hellbent on league supremacy. A controversial manager, determined to steal the respect that his enemies refuse to give. A former champion, disgraced by years of mediocrity, ascending once more into relevance. It's week 13, and the playoffs have already begun. Absolute Standings Absolute Standings is simply this: what if instead of matchups, the top five teams got a W every week and the bottom five took an L? If that was the case, here is what the standings would look like today: First place and 10th place would be the exact same, as would fourth place. However, Browns4You wouldn't be fighting for survival as they would be in 2nd. And instead of being eliminated with a record of 3-9, RIPDab would be tied for first place and vying for the number one seed in the Festival of Champions. But, that's why you play the game. Who's Hot, Who's Not? At this point in the season, the hot/not is a good indicator of how teams will fair in the playoffs. Last season, the week 12 hot/not chart accurately predicted the outcome of 5 out of the 7 playoff games, with the "hotter" team prevailing over the less hot team. While that might sound like good news for GBM, it's not. GBM was last year's hottest team at this point and they lost to the 5th hottest team in the semifinals. Gulp. Playoffs With another great week 13 in store, it's time to take a look at all the possible outcomes for week 13. Magic Number A Winning Magic Number is the number of consecutive upcoming games a team must win to guarantee winning a given playoff spot. ^ - Means Team will Finish Better Than this Playoff Spot X - Means Team Cannot Win This Playoff Spot Number - Indicates the total number of upcoming games the team must win in order to guarentee this spot. DNCD - Means team Does Not Control Its Destiny, and thus even after winning all remaining games they need help from other teams, be it with scoring or victories. * - Indicates First Round Bye Elimination Number An Elimination Number is the number of consecutive upcoming games a team must lose to guarantee losing a given playoff spot. ^ - Means Team will Finish Better Than this Playoff Spot X - Means Team Cannot Win This Playoff Spot Number - Indicates the total number of upcoming games the team must lose in order to guarentee losing this spot. MW - Means team Might Win this spot even if they lose the rest of their games. * - Indicates first round bye Commissioner's Cup Since the NHL gives out the "Presidents' Trophy" for the league's best regular season team, I decided it's time we call the number one seed the "Commissioner's Cup." Here is a list of past winners: Remarkable that there is a deliniation between the Pre-Shotti Dynasty and the Shotti Dynasty, with Browns4You and RIPDab dominating the PSD-era and GBM/TSB dominating from 2015-present. We'll see if Pain Train can become the fifth team to win the regular season in LOC history or if GBM will reclaim the Commissioner's Cup. Week Twelve Scenarios PLAYOFFS CLINCHED: *GBM *PAIN TRAIN *PAPA *PADDOCK 9 BYES CLINCHED: *GBM ---- *Garoppoblow Me wins Commissioner's Cup with: **'Win' or **'Loss' by Pain Train WOO WOO *Pain Train WOO WOO clinches a bye with: **'Win 'or **'Loss '''by Papa's Posse ''or **'Outscore '''Papa's Posse by at least 24.57 *Pain Train WOO WOO wins Commissioner's Cup with: **'Win''' and Loss by Garoppoblow Me *Papa's Posse clinches a bye with: **'Win' and loss by Pain Train and Pain Train does not outscore by 24.57 points or more *Browns4You clinches a playoff spot with: **'Win' or **'Loss '''by Sweet Dee ''and ''Sweet Dee does not '''outscore' by 79.03 points or more. *Sweet Dee clinches a playoff spot with: **'Win '''or **'Loss''' by The Shotti Bunch or **'Outscore' Browns4You by at least 79.03 *The Shotti Bunch clinches a playoff spot with: **'Win' Week 13 Through the Ages Week 13 is packing a punch yet again this season. This year, the drama is ratcheted even higher than usual as the bubble teams, who happen to be facing each other, are Browns4You and Shotti; the two most dominant franchises in LOC history and the last FIVE Glory Bowl champions. Let's take a look back at some of the most memorable week 13 showdowns. 2011 - A Legend is Born At 6-6, Papa needed a win and a loss by either GBM or Brak and Yellow to make playoffs. Meanwhile, Pain Train (9-3) was facing RIPDab (9-3). The winner was getting a bye, the loser was playing in the quarterfinals. Let's take a look at the results: With those two results, Papa jumped from 7th to 6th and Brak and Yellow fell from 5th to 7th. Papa would go on to win the Glory Bowl by defeating Browns4You yet again. Meanwhile... Tied for first heading into the week, Pain Train is defeated handily by RIPdab and is forced into the 3-seed, where they would lose in the opening round to none other than Papa's Posse. 2012 - First 6-7 Team Ever Clinches Playoff Berth in Upset Victory Pain Train (4-8, 7th) almost became the first and only 5-8 team to make the playoffs. They needed a win and a loss by Why am I doing this (5-7, 6th). In one of the most surprising performances and playoff berths in history, "Why am I doing this" upset the soon-to-be Glory Bowl II champion MMMS (9-3) in week 13, knocking Pain Train into the consolation tourney. Pain Train had outscored WAIDT on the season by close to 400 points. 2013 - Pain Train Takes Down the Momma Dynasty All six playoff spots were decided by week 13, with 6th place IAMGROOT (6-6) two games ahead of 7th place Paddock 9 (4-8). But at the top of the standings, a powerhouse showdown determined the 2-seed in the league. Defending champion momma (9-3) took on Pain Train (8-4), with the winner getting a first round bye and the loser forced to play in the quarterfinals. With an absolute beatdown of MMMS, PT won the bye spot while momma would go on to defeat IAMGROOT in the quarterfinals, only to be taken down again by Pain Train in the semifinals. Pain Train single-handedly vanquished the momma dynasty that year. 2014 - IAMGROOT Clinches by Less than 1 Point Paddock 9 (5-7, 7th) was in a race against IAMGROOT (6-6, 6th) yet again. This time, they needed a win against momma (10-2, 1st) and a Groot loss against Sweet Dee (2-10, 10th) and they would be in. The odds were stacked against them and these two games proved to be the most close, exciting showdowns to determine a playoff spot...ever. IAMGROOT makes the playoffs by less than 1 point. Despite the victory, Paddock 9 finished in 7th, a game back. They still managed to unseat momma from the 1-seed, which was taken by Browns4You. B4Y went on to defeat momma in Glory Bowl IV. 2015 - History Repeats Itself: Papa vs. Browns4You Play Win-or-Go-Home For those who don't remember just how storied the rivalries in this league are, hopefully this section has served as a reminder. Browns4You (5-7, 7th) owned the points tie-breaker with Papa's Posse (6-6, 6th). The two faced off in week 13, with the winner guaranteed a playoff spot and the loser guaranteed the Consolation Tournament. It is one of the few pure win-or-go-home games we have ever seen in week 13. Even this week we don't have a true win-or-go-home since other matchups could help Shotti or Browns get in, even if they lose. Papa took care of business and sent the defending champion packing. This would be the first (and still only) time that Browns4You missed the playoffs, though their legacy still has not completely recovered. 2017 - Three Teams, Two Spots. Sound Familiar? Last year's race for the Festival of Champions did not disappoint. Garoppoblow Me (5-7, 7th) was in a tight race all season with ma ma momma said (6-6, 6th) and now the two teams would go head-to-head, with the winner punching their ticket to the big dance. Meanwhile, Paddock 9 (6-6, 5th), was at risk of falling into 7th if they lost and got outscored by momma (momma was only 8 points behind them for the point tie-break). Momma was sent, once again, into the consolation tournament, where they still reside to this day. P9 and PT faced off again in the quarterfinals, where Pain Train won the rematch. GBM made it to the semis, where they were curb-stomped by Glory Bowl VII champion, The Shotti Bunch. And as we have seen, defending Glory Bowl champions do not fair well in bubble games... 2018 - The Story Not Yet Written The Shotti Bunch (6-6, 7th) faces Browns4You (6-6, 5th), with the winner automatically in. Sweet Dee (6-6, 6th) will also guarantee entry into the Festival of Champions with a win against Papa's Posse (3rd, 8-4), but also gets in if they can muster enough points to own the tie-breaker with whatever team loses the TSB vs. B4Y mega-match. Papa won't even consider throwing the match to help block one of the two former champions. They have an outside shot at a bye spot, if Pain Train (9-3, 2nd) were to fall to rival Paddock 9 (7-5, 4th). All-Time Week 13 Standings (Minimum Two Games) Some teams know how to start and finish strong. Other teams cannot. Momma is an astonishing 3-12 combined between week 1 and 13 (0.200), well below their regular season record (0.496). GBM, meanwhile, is 10-5 combined between week 1 and 13 (0.666). This is above their regular season record (0.515). Sweet Dee will have to hope she can buck the trend and win her first week 13 game since 2013, or else the team might find themselves in 7th place yet again. Browns4You is in a similar boat, facing off against the team with the longest current week 13 win streak in TSB. This is the third year in a row that the two have faced off in week 13 as a result of the Gauntlet of the Gods schedule format. LXC Shotti's in first. What else is new? Stat Chat * MMMS becomes the 4th team to reach 60 combined losses. * MMMS ties Papa for 2nd-most weeks in last place (15) and is one loss away from tying the all-time record, set by Paddock 9 (16). * Mere weeks after logging the highest ever regular season score by a losing team, Bell does it again. This time they put up the 7th highest point total ever by a losing team in the regular season and 9th highest overall (regular and postseason combined). * Bell of Da Ball needs GBM to score just 96.64 points against them and they will break the record for “most regular seasons points scored against” in LOC history. They are already 3rd on the list. ** The record of 3042.46 has stood since 2013. * For the second year in a row, Pain Train and Paddock 9 have notched top-10 all-time roster move numbers. P9, sitting at 60, has enough for second most roster moves in a single season. He is 14 shy of his all-time record. Pain Train, at 34, has the 10th most all-time roster moves in a single season. Power Rankings Earlier this season we did a themed "which NFL team's performance best suits your own" ranking. I think it's time to do that again since we're a week away from the playoffs. Which NFL team is most like your own? PT - Team record against teams currently in a playoff position. L3 - Record over the last three games. © - Clinched Playoff Berth (E) - Eliminated from Playoff Contention (B) - Clinched a First Round Bye 1(1). Garoppoblow Me 9-3 © (B) * PT: 5-3 * L3: 3-0 * NFL team: New Orleans Saints (duh) GBM extends their best ever win streak to seven games (2nd best all-time) and notches their record 11th victory over RIPDab, tying The Shotti Bunch for the most ever wins against Nate. With a bye week guaranteed, GBM has locked in a top-4 playoff finish for the fourth year in a row. Will this be the season they make it back to the Glory Bowl, or will they be playing for the Salty Dolphin trophy yet again? GBM is obviously most like the Saints, and not just because they make up like 80% of the team. They clearly are the favorite to win it all, but only one Glory Bowl appearance ever for this team and a whole lot of playoff chokes. I can't say with any confidence that they will be able to pull it off. 2(4). Paddock 9 7-5 © * PT: 2-3 * L3: 2-1 * NFL team: Chicago Bears P9's third consecutive 7-win season, fourth overall, with a shot this week at setting a new franchise record for regular season wins if they can defeat Pain Train WOO WOO. Of course, Pain Train will be looking to do the same for their own squad... I like the Chicago Bears for Paddock 9. Some weeks they are blowing the doors off of teams, other weeks they're stuggling. All in all, I think they are a playoff team with some glaring weaknesses that we have to hope no one exploits. I also like the irony of giving the team with the best defense to the LOC team with the worst defense. 3(3). Pain Train WOO WOO 9-3 © * PT: 6-2 * L3: 2-1 * NFL team: Pittsburgh Steelers Pain Train hits 9 wins for the first time since their 2013 runner-up season. If they beat P9 they will hit a new franchise record for regular season wins. After scoring below 200 in 3 of their first five games, they have now scored over 215 in 6 of their last 7. Like the Steelers, the Pain Train's have squeaked by so many wins this season that it's hard to see the true ability of the franchise. Lately, they've been much improved, but still...are they real or nah? 4(5). Papa's Posse 8-4 © * PT: 3-4 * L3: 3-0 * NFL team: Houston Texans Papa has done it! They have beaten their franchise record for most wins in a regular season. At 8-4, they have already doubled their win total from last season and clinched a top-4 seed in the playoffs. If they win this week, they have a shot at a first round bye. Incredible comeback story. Their 100-point blowout victory of rival Browns4You has given them an 8-7 edge in the series. The Texans might have an easy division, but they have made the most of the schedule they were handed. Just like Papa, the Texans haven't been relevant in several years but are starting to turn some heads as playoffs approvah. 5(2). WhatCanBrownsDo4You? 6-6 * PT: 2-5 * L3:1-2 * NFL team: Dallas Cowboys Browns4You takes a hit this week after becoming the only team to not score over 200 points in week twelve. Granted, they were without their top weapon in Kareem Hunt. But they are still the 3rd coldest team over the last three weeks and you'd think getting the Patriots players back would have given them a scoring boost. Gronk is a great decoy for the Patriots offense, but does he have enough left to be a fantasy pro-bowler for the next four weeks? Browns are the Cowboys, because they are probably going to make it into the playoffs but it won't be because of how amazing they've been playing. I'm particularly disappointed in the fantasy output that this roster has produced of late, but I am hoping he keeps it up at least another few weeks so we can vanquish him in the Festival of Champions. 6(10). The Shotti Bunch 6-6 * PT: 4-3 * L3: 1-2 * NFL team: Baltimore Ravens Shotti has followed an 0-6 streak against MMMS with a 7-1 streak. While they control their own destiny, the hits keep on coming. Marvin Jones Jr. has officially been put on IR, leading to a release from the TSB squad. TSB is obviously unhappy with his keepers, and for good reason. His other keeper, Melvin Gordon, is also sidelined with an injury that might keep him out until the Festival Semifinals, or later. What a great time to be getting AJ Green back, but this still isn't the full, healthy squad we're used to seeing from Shotti at this time of year. I think Shotti is most like the Ravens, because they have enough to make it in but probably not enough to take down some of the better teams in the conference. I also think they rely a lot on other teams performing poorly against them, instead of winning on their own merits. 7(6). Sweet Dee 6-6 * PT: 3-4 * L3: 1-2 * NFL team: Indy Colts Eight games in a row throwing 3+ TDs now for Andrew Luck, an incredible streak that he has to keep up against Papa's Posse. Todd Gurley is back, and he faces a weak Detroit defense. After falling just short to Pain Train, can they finish off this ruthless stretch (1st, 2nd, 3rd place teams) with a win and a ticket to the Festival? Sweet Dee is making people pay attention this year, with great fantasy performances from beginning to end. They faced a tough schedule, but behind the 3-TD per game performance by Andrew Luck, the team has gone from a punchline to a packing a hefty hit. 8(8). Bell of da Ball 3-9 * PT: 0-8 * L3: 0-3 * NFL team: Oakland Raiders Ball’s second 3-game losing streak of the season. They’ve now gone 19 games without back-to-back wins. It's a rebuild year, sure, but they have also been absolutely fucked by the schedule. If they had just won the two games where they were the second highest scoring team in the league, they'd still be competing for a playoff spot. It's a rebuild year! You thought that we brought an old coach back into the fold so that he could win the championship his first year? No way, dudes. Rebuild year. 9(7). RIPDab 3-9 * PT: 0-8 * L3: 1-2 * NFL team: Atlanta Falcons RIPDab has now lost 10 regular season games to GBM, the most by any team against a single opponent. They'll try to avoid their second 10-loss season in week 13 against 10th place MMMS. You just hate to see the Falcons get so screwed. They get screwed by playing better teams, they get screwed by not being that good, and they get screwed by the final score being always against them. Sucks. 10(9). ma ma momma said 3-9 * PT: 2-5 * L3: 1-2 * NFL team: Jacksonville Jaguars A depressing stat pointed out by MMMS management: MMMS would have beaten Shotti in 8 of the 12 weeks this season. He played them in 2 of the four weeks in which he couldn’t. Momma’s 3rd 9+ loss season and this one is a bitter pill to swallow as they were victims of the scheduling along with several other teams. At least Leonard Fournette, suspended for week 13, will be well rested for the Consolation Tournament. I thought these guys were supposed to be good but turns out they suck. Matchups (Undercards) (8th) RIPDab vs. (10th) ma ma momma said I suppose it's for the best that these two meaningless, pathetic, low life scum teams face off against each other and in no way can influence the playoff picture for next week. This could be a preview of a Million Dollar Game or Heart and Soul Bowl matchup, though. Coool.... (1st) Garoppoblow Me vs. (9th) Bell of Da Ball The only team that Ball has yet to face upon their return to the LOC, the Commish. What could have been a drama packed matchup has become little more than a formality with one team already clinching a 1-2 spot and the other locked in to a 8-10 spot. There is very little drama, save for Ball going for the record for most points scored against them and GBM hoping to become the fourth team to win the Commissioner's Cup twice. (2nd) Pain Train vs. (4th) Paddock 9 Earlier this season, Pain Train defeated Paddock 9 by 0.08 points, the second smallest margin of victory ever in the LOC (0.02 is an almost unbeatable record from 2012). Since then, both teams have improved by nearly 100 points per game. While the stakes aren't all that high, this will have some effect on seeding and, more importantly, bragging rights. P9 has a 44 points projection edge as of now, with Mahomes and Hill on two weeks rest going up against Cousins in NE, Mixon vs. Denver, and Shepard vs. Chicago. (3rd) Papa's Posse vs. (6th) Sweet Dee Sweet Dee is in control of their own destiny and if projections hold they will finish with their best ever record and a ticket to the tournament. In week 4, it was Papa emerging victorious in a 268-256 shootout. Tied 5-5, the series will be determined by whoever claims victory in week thirteen. More importantly, the winner will be rewarded with either a playoff berth, or potentially a bye. Matchup of the Week (6-6) WhatCanBrownsDo4You? (229.00) vs. (6-6) The Shotti Bunch (215.56) * Head-to-Head Wins ** TSB: 7 ** B4Y: 5 * Current Series Win Streak ** TSB: 4W (9/4/15-12/4/17) * Historical Playoff Matchups ** 2012 Salty Dolphin Bowl: B4Y (W) 204.94-229.71 ** 2013 Festival Semifinals: TSB (W) 355.42-284.46 * Key Injuries (TSB) ** Melvin Gordon (OUT) ** AJ Green (QUESTIONABLE) * Key Injuries (B4Y) ** None Tied at 69 wins (nice), Shotti and Browns4You are not just fighting for playoff survival but for league dominance. The winner will be the first ever to reach 70 combined wins in the LOC. In a year defined by Shotti's struggles, Browns4You has set out to reclaim his place atop the league standings and remind us who was the king for many years in this league. Buried beneath a pile of Shotti Bunch Cups of Glory, Browns4You's run, which began in 2011 and cuminated in a 2014 Glory Bowl victory, is one of the best stretches in history. But not the best stretch. That belongs to Shotti, who has never missed a semifinals round in his franchise history. Four championships (three in a row), and six straight Festival Semifinals games. A run that may never be duplicated. But is it about to come to an end? The future is not yet written, but it's about to be. Browns4You has a chance to put an end to the tyranny. We've already talked plenty about what's at stake here. Win and in, lose and you risk going home. Shotti is clearly at the disadvantage in this matchup. While Cam has a piece of cake showdown with Tampa Bay, he gets tougher matchups down the board. Ridley against Baltimore's stiffening defense. Dalvin Cook against a NE team that just effectively killed the run last week against New York. AJ Green against Denver, coming off injury. The X-Factor for Browns4You might be Aaron Rodgers. 18 and 28 points in two of his last three games (with a more decent 43 pointer sandwiched in between). We can say it: he doesn't look right. I'm not making any bold statements about how he's 81st ranked in league history in 4th quarter/OT comebacks, or that he's 0-37 against above-.500 teams when trailing by any amount in the fourth quarter. I'm strictly talking fantasy. The good news for Zach is he faces Arizona, who just gave up literally every pass play run against them last week except for one, which Rivers should have just taken a sack on if he gave any sort of fucks about records, which is all he'll ever have so he should care. This team is dangerous. They have Antonio Brown, Kareem Hunt, Rob Gronkowski, Baltimore defense. They are skilled at every position. But they haven't defeated Shotti in over four years...